The Greens in local government, after May 2023

In the council elections of May 4^th, the flagship result for the Green Party was Mid Suffolk, which became the first council in England ever to be under majority control by the Greens, who doubled their seats to 24, against 6 for the Conservatives and 4 for the LibDems: a major achievement by any measure.

The path for Mid Suffolk Greens is simple: they have a majority on the council, giving them control, and obviating reliance on any other party; they can, in short, do what they want.

Beyond Mid Suffolk, and masked by success in that council, the surge in Green council seat numbers has expanded the ‘battlefield’ for the Greens considerably, who are now the largest party or main opposition on a significant number of councils. It’s these councils I want to consider.

1. There are nine councils where some other party has a controlling majority, and the Greens are the second largest (i.e. official opposition) party: Brighton & Hove; Exeter; Knowsley; Norwich; Reading; Reigate & Banstead; Solihull; South Oxfordshire; South Tyneside.
2. There are now seven councils where there is No Overall Control (NOC) where the Greens are now the largest party: Babergh; East Herts; East Suffolk; Folkestone & Hythe; Forest of Dean; Lewes; Warwick.
3. There are five NOC councils where the Greens are the second largest party: Burnley; Lancaster; Malvern Hills; Wealden; Worcester.

Category 1: Greens second in a council with a majority party (nine councils)

Brighton & Hove; Exeter; Knowsley; Norwich; Reading; Reigate & Banstead; Solihull; South Oxfordshire; South Tyneside

Labour are the majority party on six councils, Conservative on two, LibDems one one.

In none of these councils are the Greens particularly close to the leading party: the closest is Reigate & Banstead where the Greens have 11 seats to the Conservatives 23. If the Greens could somehow corral all the opposition parties (Labour, LibDems, Independents and Residents), they could lead an opposition coalition with 22 seats. Not enough for a majority, but it might just enable them to put pressure on the Tories, but such an alliance would be very fragile, and its objectives would be vague. It is probably better under such circumstances to go it alone, and run a proper, focused opposition, working with other parties on an issue by issue basis.

The dynamics may be influenced by who the majority party is, the state of pre-existing relationships with that party, and whether that party has itself held on to control, or just gained the council, with all the concomitant issues of adjusting to control with perhaps a significant number of new and inexperienced councillors

It is useful that in most of these councils the number of Green gains this year is small, especially compared to the number of seats already held, so in all cases the Greens should have a core of experienced councillors to help bring the new members up to speed, and to create a united group.

Beyond that, it’s worth considering how the size of the Green group compares to other opposition parties. In some, like Norwich and Solihull, they are clearly larger than the others. In such cases, where the Greens are unequivocally the opposition, they will need to act like the opposition: scrutinise the party in control, plan alternative budgets and policies, and lead the opposition. In others, like Reading and Exeter, the Greens are only slightly ahead of one or more other parties. Here, a forward-looking approach may be to co-ordinate more with other opposition parties: the next elections may change the picture, and banking some credit for being coalitionable may be worthwhile.

Note that this group includes Brighton & Hove, where the Greens lost a significant number of seats. Here there really is no alternative, in the face of a large majority for a Labour party which does not hide its hostility to the Greens, to toughing it out, opposing where possible, and waiting for better times to come.

Category 2: Greens largest party in a NOC council (seven councils)

Babergh; East Herts; East Suffolk; Folkestone & Hythe; Forest of Dean; Lewes; Warwick

The obvious route here is to try and run the council, either as a minority, or by finding a coalition partner.

Generally, running a minority administration requires that either the leading party is close to a majority, or the opposition is well fragmented, or both. The closest to a majority here is Lewes (but see below), where the Greens are four seats away. Even that is not terribly close; and in all of these councils there is at least one other strong party.

In all these councils, there are – at first look – at least two choices for coalition partner. But taking a deeper dive may narrow the options.

Babergh                              Con or Ind

East Herts                           Con or LibDem

East Suffolk                        Con or Lab or LibDem + Ind

Folkestone & Hythe        Lab or Con

Forest of Dean                  Ind or Lab

Lewes                                  LibDem or Lab

Warwick                              Lab or LibDem

Partnering with Independents offers management challenges – these may very well include more than one distinct group, and be difficult to manage and direct within a coalition. They are not called Independents for nothing.

Partnering with Conservatives offers ideological challenges – of all the coalition options, Conservatives are the furthest from the Greens in what they aim to achieve. It’s not impossible that this could work, but given that Conservative unpopularity is at least partly behind Green success this year, green voters may be puzzled or repulsed by a coalition with them.

That leaves Labour and the LibDems, and the following possible coalitions:

East Herts                           LibDem

East Suffolk                        Lab or LibDem + Ind

Folkestone & Hythe        Lab

Forest of Dean                  Lab

Lewes                                  LibDem or Lab

Warwick                              Lab or LibDem

It’s going to be up to the Green group to decide who they can work with, or who wants to work with them.

It’s worth noting at this point that the result in Lewes, which wiped out the Cons and left the Greens, LibDems and Labour with sizeable groups (in that order), came out because of a tactical voting agreement between the three parties, and as a result the Greens have offered the others a three-way coalition. I haven’t heard the outcome of that offer, but if it comes about, it will be interesting to see: a three-way coalition, with no opposition.

Let’s now consider the makeup of the Green group. All have grown significantly at these elections, with the smallest increase being in Warwick, with 43% (6 of 14) Green councillors being newly elected. This rises up to East Herts where 89% (17 of 19) councillors are new. This can present considerable difficulties.

Every party making significant gains is bound to have some ‘paper candidates’ elected accidentally. They may not have been rigorously vetted, may not want to be there, or may just decide to walk away at the first difficult decision or disagreement. Even those councillors who wanted to be elected, and campaigned hard for it, may become quickly disillusioned with the realities of running a council, the need to do things they personally disagree with, or the inability to deliver a prized goal.

The shape and size of such a group can change significantly and quickly. In these circumstances, it may be worth looking to see if it might be better to allow some other coalition (there are, necessarily, no likely minority administration), and to take the role of opposition until the Green group has stabilised and cohered. This might depend on whether there are other options: in fact other than Lewes, the only possible two-party coalition would be East Herts, where Cons + LibDems would have 26 seats out of 50: not a particularly strong option.

A Green-anchored coalition, even if led by some other party, would seem the only sensible option.

Category 3: Greens second largest party in a NOC council (five councils)

Burnley; Lancaster; Malvern Hills; Wealden; Worcester

This group are somewhat more diverse than either of the two previous groups.

In Burnley and Malvern Hills, the Green group has only slightly increased in size, so integrating new councillors should be relatively easy, compared to big increases in Lancaster, Wealden and Worcester.

In Lancaster the Greens are clearly the second party, in the others the opposition parties are more evenly balanced.

In Burnley and Malvern Hills, the largest party (Labour and Independents respectively) is close to a majority and may try to go that route; if they don’t, they could easily manage a majority with any one of the opposition parties. If offered the chance, entering a coalition as junior partner might be a good option for the Greens.

The balance in Lancaster suggests that Greens opposing Labour is the most realistic option, the only question is whether Labour try to marshal some of the smaller parties to get a majority, or at least a strong minority. The Greens would need at least two other groups to join them to be able to run the council themselves.

In Worcester, a Labour-Green majority is possible, as is Lab-Con and (just) Grn-Con.

In Wealden, LibDem-Green or (again, only just) LibDem-Ind are the possible majority options. Otherwise, three parties would be required.

Regional Distribution

Six of the nine English regions feature in the list: five in East, one in North East, three in North West, seven in South East, two in South West, four in West Midlands. The Greens are effective across almost the entire country

Council Type

Seventeen of the twenty two councils are district or borough councils; three are metropolitan boroughs; two are unitary authorities. Similarly to the regional distribution, the Greens are capable of winning seats in all types of council.